County and State Economic Outlook for FY2027 and Beyond
Maui County
Summary
Maui's economy leans on U.S. visitors more than ever (87% of arrivals), and the Iran war's oil shock could push inflation toward 3.5% and keep interest rates high. Condo values are already down 23%, which will shrink property tax collections. Diversifying away from tourism remains the long-term challenge.
At a glance
- Total mentions
- 1
- Last 30 days
- 0
Last discussed Mar 25, 2026.
Impact analysis
Roughly $900 million in lost visitor spending projected by 2031 from the Bill 9 TVR phase-out, plus a 23% condo value drop already hitting property tax rolls.
Residents get a clearer picture of the fiscal headwinds the county must plan around.
Small businesses, nonprofits, and homeowners face pressure from inflation, higher rates, and potential property tax shortfalls.
Mentions & discussions (1)
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